By 2025. cars manufactured in China and sold in Europe are expected to reach 800.000 units.
These figures are not just my wild guess but are predicted by the global consulting firm PwC. They also add, "Most of these will be pure electric vehicles (BEVs)."
PwC's prediction is certainly based on facts. From January to September this year, new energy vehicles (BEVs + PHEVs) exported from China to Europe accounted for 46.8% of the total volume. During the same period, a considerable portion of the 165.000 new cars produced at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory were also sold to Europe.
Additionally, many Chinese car brands, including Lynk & Co, MG, Aiways, Great Wall, BYD, and NIO, have written their plans to enter the European market into their brand development agendas. It's not difficult to foresee that as the process of automotive electrification continues, the number of cars exported from China to Europe will continue to grow.
Electrification gives Chinese brands unprecedented opportunities to enter Europe
In the face of the aggressive Chinese electric vehicles, the European auto industry cannot sit idly by. Recently, the German consulting company Berylls Strategy Advisors conducted a public opinion survey on the development prospects of Chinese car companies in Germany.
So, as Europe's largest car sales country, what is the attitude of German consumers towards electric vehicles from China?
The survey results show that Chinese car brands still face many difficulties in entering Germany at this stage.
Firstly, German car users have strong brand loyalty. Currently, these new brands from China have not yet established a certain brand appeal in the European market in terms of both brand itself and promotional efforts. Therefore, it is difficult to attract or even persuade those users who choose Audi, BMW, or Mercedes-Benz in Germany.
Some might argue: If the brand isn't enough, the price can make up for it! Just sell cheaper, right?
Unfortunately, these electric vehicles imported from China to Europe are not cheap. NIO and BYD, both entering the Norwegian and German markets, might be typical examples.
In Norway, the NIO ES8 is priced at 548.900-638.900 kroner (approximately 380.000-444.000 RMB), and the BYD Tang EV is priced at 599.900 kroner (approximately 416.000 RMB).
In Germany, NIO will first introduce the ET7. EL7. and ET5 models, with starting prices of 81.900 euros (about 610.000 RMB), 85.900 euros (about 630.000 RMB), and 61.900 euros (about 454.000 RMB), respectively. The pre-sale price of the BYD Tang EV is 72.000 euros (about 510.000 RMB).
For comparison, the starting price of the Audi Q8 e-tron in Germany is only 74.400 euros, and the BMW iX starts at 77.300 euros. You can compare these.
In the automotive industry, particularly in the relatively stronger North American and European markets, Asian car brands have mainly relied on cost-effectiveness to gain a foothold. But it seems that "higher cost-effectiveness" is not the main reason for European consumers to choose these Chinese brand electric vehicles. Even if Chinese brand electric vehicles are priced similarly to local BBA brands, loyal European users are likely to prefer BBA.
Moreover, Germans, or Europeans in general, are not very enthusiastic about intelligence. Researchers at McGill University in Canada once published a smartphone "addiction ranking," showing that Chinese people ranked first, while Germans were the least dependent on smartphones. Additionally, many European countries are also at the bottom of the list.
If their requirements for the intelligence of everyday-used smartphones are low, you can imagine how low their requirements for the intelligence of car systems, which are used less frequently, might be.
Selling Chinese electric vehicles, which highlight intelligence, to Europeans who are not interested in intelligence is like trying to sell a comb to a monk.
But even if Chinese-made electric vehicles can fully cater to European users' preferences, there is still an objective fact: the market share of new energy vehicles in Europe is not as high as imagined. According to ACEA statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the market share of BEVs was 10.6%, and PHEVs were 8.6%. Together, they were less than HEVs (22.8%).
In Europe, the new energy vehicle market, especially the pure electric vehicle market targeted by Chinese brands entering Europe, is not large and is growing far slower than in China.
Of course, where there is danger, there is also opportunity. The survey results also reveal some information that could give Chinese car companies a glimmer of hope.
For example, among the 1.000 respondents, 45% believe that "Chinese car companies can gain a foothold in the German market and establish long-term cooperative relationships."
In one part of the survey, over 65% of the 60 respondents said they had driven Chinese brand cars, indicating a strong interest among Europeans in Chinese cars.
Moreover, 25% of high-end car users in the survey stated that they are "considering buying cars from BYD, NIO, or other Chinese brands," provided these cars have advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness.
In any case, automotive electrification indeed provides Chinese car brands with more opportunities to enter the European market, along with more confidence and courage than during the era of fuel vehicles.
Which Chinese car brand has the most potential to succeed in Europe?
But as mentioned earlier, the development potential of the European new energy vehicle market is still uncertain. After all, subsidies for electric vehicles in many European countries are gradually being phased out. With multiple Chinese car brands simultaneously launching offensives in the European market, like thousands of troops crossing a single-log bridge, some will rejoice, and others will be disappointed.
Here, we might as well boldly predict who is most likely to laugh last.
Among the Chinese car brands that have entered Europe at this stage, I personally favor Lynk & Co and BYD.
As we all know, Lynk & Co is backed by Geely and technically supported by Volvo. As early as 2018. Lynk & Co high-profile announced its entry into the European market. From brand establishment to technical foundation, it is undoubtedly easier to gain recognition from European consumers. This advantage will extend to the Zeekr brand, which is set to enter Europe in 2023.
Although BYD is purely "Made in China," and might still be considered a "foreign species" in the relatively fixed-minded European market, BYD's e6 and pure electric buses have already tested the waters in Europe early on, embedding the BYD name in European people's awareness.
In May 2013. 52 BYD e6 taxis arrived in London, operated by greentomatocars to provide green travel services for London citizens.
Furthermore, in recent years, BYD has achieved great success in the Chinese market and officially entered the Japanese market, significantly boosting its presence in the international community. Naturally, this will also enhance European users' confidence in the BYD brand.
Additionally, BYD recruited former Audi designer Wolfgang Egger and former Mercedes-Benz designer Hans Schafer in recent years. Coupled with inherent cost control advantages, building an electric vehicle that caters to the European market is naturally not difficult.
Some might mention MG.
Although MG is now recognized as a domestic brand by Chinese consumers, it still holds a certain position in Europeans' hearts, giving it a foundation in the European market.
Moreover, MG's gasoline vehicles, such as the MG3. MG ZS, and MG HS, were sold back to Europe years ago. Recently, MG has launched a more aggressive offensive in the European market with its new energy vehicle lineup, not just relying on sentiment but also establishing a strong presence with its products.
Furthermore, MG's new energy vehicles have received higher overall ratings from Euro NCAP than their gasoline vehicles, providing users with more confidence when choosing.
However, MG's prospects in Europe are still not as good as the "first-tier" brands mentioned earlier. The main reasons include technical gaps and poor sales in China, preventing MG from forming a cost advantage comparable to Lynk & Co/Zeekr and BYD.
In some ways, Great Wall Motors, which has introduced the Ora Funky Cat (Ora Good Cat), WEY Coffee 01 (Mocha PHEV), and Coffee 02 (Latte PHEV) to Europe, is in a similar position to MG. While its products are good, its domestic product appeal is not strong enough to create a scale effect.
I am least optimistic about Chinese new energy brands entering Europe.
Here, "new energy brands" refers to new brands with no prior car manufacturing experience, such as Aiways and NIO. Brands newly established by mainstream manufacturers are not included.
These new energy brands have no brand recognition in the European market and lack scale/cost advantages. Given their precarious situation in the domestic market, it's even more challenging to compete abroad.
Historically, no car brand has ever sold poorly in its home market but succeeded overseas, and there will be no exceptions for new energy brands.
